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Will Pennsylvania Matter At All?...

By John Nichols, The Nation
April 22, 2008

Published on April 21, 2008 by The Nation.

There is a chance that, after a month and a half of campaigning and record spending by both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Tuesday's Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary will settle nothing.

Of course, if Obama pulls an upset and beats Clinton--even by the narrowest of margins--the senator from New York will be finished. Clinton's campaign is essentially broke and a defeat of any kind will make it impossible for her to muster the resources or the energy to carry on for much longer.

Similarly, if Clinton wins by a solid double-digit margin--something in the range of 12 to 14 points, or anything more than that--the result will open up a dialogue about whether the Obama campaign has lost its luster. There will be a genuine dialogue, even among Obama backers, about te prospect that the hits he has taken over his pastor, his remarks about small towns and a host of other media-manipulated issues have done the candidate lasting damage.

But what if Clinton wins by a reasonable but not overwhelming margin in the Keystone state?

Then the spin takes over.

Clinton backers will claim that, because she was outspent overwhelmingly, the victory has dramatic meaning. They will note her string of big-state wins and they will start dusting off their popular-vote charts.

Obama backers will counter that Clinton had a daunting lead in Pennsylvania just weeks ago--as much as 20 points in some polls--and that she ran with the support of Governor Ed Rendell, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter and plenty of key Democratic officials and machine operatives from the state's biggest city.

What will come out of that spin cycle? Nothing.

The race will go on, at least to Indiana and probably beyond.

Democrats who would rather by running against John McCain will experience a dream deferred--and, if the campaign continues on its current course, very probably damaged.

Ultimately, this is why Pennsylvania matters so very much. If the state can just produce a compelling result, it could open the next chapter of the 2008 race. If it fails to do so, Pennsylvania and its primary will barely qualify for footnote status.